土壤重金属污染健康风险评估新视角——概率风险评估的源起及展望
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X53

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国家自然科学基金优秀青年基金(41722111)和面上项目(41977143)资助


New Perspectives about Health Risk Assessment of Soil Heavy Metal Pollution-Origin and Prospects of Probabilistic Risk Analysis
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China(General Program, Key Program, Major research Plan),Joint Research Fund for Overseas Chinese Young Scholars

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    摘要:

    评估土壤重金属污染对人体产生的危害,是土壤环境风险管理的重要前提。概率风险评估秉持表征不确定性和变异性的理念,为土壤重金属污染健康风险评估带来全新视角。为强化对概率风险评估的理论认知,推动其在土壤重金属暴露风险评估领域的深入应用,本文结合文献计量及整合分析方法,系统阐述了概率风险评估的理论基础及内涵演进,进一步将其与传统风险评估进行比较,着重论述该方法在环境健康风险评估中的应用及发展动态,并探讨未来研究趋势和方向。研究表明:作为传统确定性健康风险的重要补充,概率风险评估是将变异性和不确定性纳入环境风险评估过程的一组理念和技术集成,其突破了对环境风险的保守单点估计,适用于人体暴露健康风险精细评估。当前概率风险评估框架对于参数边界定义及暴露场景的不确定性处理的阐述不明,导致其准确性、适用性及资源成本的消耗一直存在争议,且其在与土壤重金属源解析及生物靶标分析相整合,向多介质、多受体、多尺度概率风险集成分析框架拓展时还面临着技术挑战。未来可从理论基础、技术方法、实践应用等多方面深化概率风险评估研究,提升概率风险评估框架在土壤环境风险基准制定及管理体系发展中的政策价值。

    Abstract:

    Health hazard assessment of soil heavy metal pollution is the paramount premise of soil environmental risk management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) that upholds the idea of uncertainty and variability of characterization has opened up new perspectives about health risk assessment of soil heavy metal pollution. In order to strengthen the theoretical cognition of PRA and to promote in-depth application of PRA in the field of soil heavy metals exposure risk assessment, this paper systematically elaborated the theoretical basis and connotation evolution of PRA, with the aid of the bibliometric and integrating analysis methods, and compared PRA with the traditional deterministic risk assessment (DRA), with emphases on dynamics of its application and development and trends and directions of the research on PRA in future. The research indicates that being an important supplement to DRA, PRA is an integration of a set of concepts and technologies that include both variability and uncertainty into the environment risk assessment. It has broken through the limit of the traditional conservative single-point risk estimation, and is applicable to fine assessment of the risk of soil heavy metals exposure to human health. However, the current PRA framework fails to explain clearly the definition of parameter boundaries and uncertainty handling of exposure scenarios, thus leading to arguments over its accuracy, applicability and resource costs. Another challenge originates from its integration with source apportionment and biomarkers analysis of soil heavy metals and development towards a multi-media, multi-receptor and multi-scale PRA framework. It is, therefore, essential for us to unfold in-depth research on PRA from the aspects of theoretical basis, technology and practical application, so as to enhance the policy implications in drafting benchmarks and developing management systems of soil environment risks.

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杨湜烟,刘杏梅,徐建明.土壤重金属污染健康风险评估新视角——概率风险评估的源起及展望[J].土壤学报,2022,59(1):28-37. DOI:10.11766/trxb202009120516 YANG Shiyan, LIU Xingmei, XU Jianming. New Perspectives about Health Risk Assessment of Soil Heavy Metal Pollution-Origin and Prospects of Probabilistic Risk Analysis[J]. Acta Pedologica Sinica,2022,59(1):28-37.

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