引用本文:周炳中,赵其国,杨浩.江苏省耕地变化及其驱动机制的数理探讨[J].土壤学报,2003,40(5):665-671. DOI:10.11766/trxb200205060504
Zhou Bing-zhong,Zhao Qi-guo,Yang Hao.STUDY ON THE CHANGE OF CULTIVATED LAND AND ITS REGULATION COUNTERMEASURE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE[J].Acta Pedologica Sinica,2003,40(5):665-671. DOI:10.11766/trxb200205060504
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江苏省耕地变化及其驱动机制的数理探讨
周炳中, 赵其国, 杨浩
中国科学院南京土壤研究所, 南京, 210008
摘要:
运用数理统计分析江苏近20年来耕地数量变化规律及与人文要素关系,探讨经济发达地区耕地数量变化的过程、方向、速率、结构、程度、空间差异性,揭示耕地变化的驱动机制。研究表明,经济发达省份耕地递减较全国平均数高18%,连续呈现单向递减变化,并具有缓慢递减-快速递减-急剧递减-快速递减的时间变化轨迹。变化幅度的空间差异有其规律性:从高发达区向一般发达区减小的梯状差异及从城郊向偏远县区减小的幅射状差异。经济增长、固定资产投资增加、人口膨胀、第三产业发展、城市化、粮食单产提高及人均居住面积等,与耕地变化具有高度关联性,并与其构成多元线性回归控制关系,是耕地变化的主要驱动因素。
关键词:  耕地变化  驱动因子  江苏省
基金项目:
STUDY ON THE CHANGE OF CULTIVATED LAND AND ITS REGULATION COUNTERMEASURE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE
Zhou Bing-zhong, Zhao Qi-guo, Yang Hao
Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China
Abstract:
The paper shows that characteristic, trend and driving forces of quantity change of cultivated land and the disciplinarian of balance between supply and require for cultivated land under food supplies safety long-term in the developed region by the analyses of relation between change of cultivated land and humanity factors near 20 years in Jiangsu. The results indicates that descending rate of cultivated land in the developed province is more eighteen percent than the mean value of whole country, that extent of cultivated land use change presented diversity like terraced or radiation state which is becoming diminutive from the much more developed region to the general developed region, and that driving forces of cultivated land change are economy increase, society progress, the advancement of science and technology, security of food, policy, market, and the safety of environment etc. The descending trend of cultivated land in quantity endanger the balance between supply and demand and the security of food within the period of too many population, therefore we should take effective measures to prevent it as fellow: the protection of farmland, the construction of land-use system and the ownership of land in the country, the avoidance of police' misdirection, saving on land-use, the protective development and study on land resource in supporting, and the fallow of cultivated land in the regulation of agricultural structure.
Key words:  Change of cultivated land  Driving factors  Jiangsu Province