潋水流域产水产沙自然过程的计算机模拟 Ⅱ.模拟结果与分析
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* 国家自然科学基金项目(49571035)资助


COMPUTER SIMULATION OF WATER YIELD,SEDIMENT YIELD AND OTHER NATURAL PROCESSES IN LIANSHUI BASIN Ⅱ.SIMULATION RESULTS AND THEIR ANALYSIS
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    摘要:

    叙述了潋水河流域产水量、产沙量等自然过程的模拟结果,分析了它们的时间变化、空间分布与模拟精度。模拟初始有个热身(warm up)阶段,特别是对产沙量的模拟。模拟精度随模拟年份增长而降低:年模拟精度产水量3年平均为98.32%;8年平均为90.27%。产沙量2年平均为88.83%;8年平为82.51%。模拟年份长到7~8年后,结果趋于稳定。表明此方法可用于流域产水产沙量的中长期年际动态监测。至于月平均模拟精度,产水量3年为83.84%,8年为86.05%;产沙量3年为68.80%,8年为59.70%。此方法的模拟结果也可应用于流域自然资源管理。

    Abstract:

    Simulation results of water yield, sediment yield and other natural processes in the Lianshui basin, China were presented for analysis of their tempo spatial variation and simulation accuracy. Simulation needs a warm up'stage at the begin ning, especially for simulation of sediment yield. Simulation accuracy decreases with the number of years in simulation. For sim ulation of water yield, the mean accuracy over 3 years is 98.32%, and over 8 years it is 90.27%, while for simulation of sedi ment yield, the mean accuracy over 2 years is 88.83%, and over 8 years it is 82.51%, which suggests that the method can be used to medium or long term dynamic monitoring of water and sediment yields in a basin. As for monthly simulation accuracy, the mean over 3 years is 83.84% and the mean over 8 years is 86.05% for water yield, and the mean over 2 years is 68.80% and the mean over 8 years is 59.70% for sediment yield. Simulation results of the method can also be applied for natural re sources management in a basin.

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曾志远,潘贤章,李硕.潋水流域产水产沙自然过程的计算机模拟 Ⅱ.模拟结果与分析[J].土壤学报,2007,44(2):212-220. DOI:10.11766/trxb200512100204 Zeng Zhiyuan, Pan Xianzhang, Li Shuo. COMPUTER SIMULATION OF WATER YIELD, SEDIMENT YIELD AND OTHER NATURAL PROCESSES IN LIANSHUI BASIN Ⅱ. SIMULATION RESULTS AND THEIR ANALYSIS[J]. Acta Pedologica Sinica,2007,44(2):212-220.

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  • 收稿日期:2005-12-10
  • 最后修改日期:2005-12-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-02-25
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