张家港土壤表层铜含量空间预测的不确定性评价研究
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* 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2006581);中国科学院知识创新工程领域前沿项目(ISSASIP0604);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2002CB410810)资助


UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF THE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF COPPER CONTENTS IN TOPSOIL IN ZHANGJIAGANG CITY, CHINA
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    摘要:

    定量土壤重金属含量空间分布预测结果的不确定性对于控制土壤空间数据的应用风险具有重要意义。采用序贯指示模拟方法对张家港土壤表层(0~15cm)Cu含量的空间不确定性进行了定量评价。结果表明,张家港东部的集约农业区及中北部的冶金和电子类企业聚集区土壤表层Cu含量较高,其空间预测的波动性也较大,而该市南部土壤Cu含量较低,空间表达的波动性也较小;序贯指示模拟的模拟实现图像没有平滑效应,当给定一个Cu含量阈值时,序贯指示模拟可以定量任一空间位置Cu含量大于该阈值的概率,同时序贯指示模拟也可以评价描绘Cu含量大于该阈值的区域的空间不确定性。

    Abstract:

    The mapping of heavy metal distribution is usually associated with certain uncertainty that needs to be considered in decision making for heavy metal pollution management.The uncertainty in prediction of heavy metal contents at unsampled lo cations is part icularly important because such uncertainty can be propagated into subsequent modelling or decision making process and has fundamental impacts on ultimate results.Based on the Cu content data of a total of 547 topsoil (0~15 cm) samples in Zhangjiagang City,the sequential indicator simulation (SIS) were applied to perform a conditional stochast ic simulation in this study to quantitatively assess the uncertainty of mapping total Cu content.Results show that prediction of the spatial pattern of soil Cu fluctuated the most in the eastern and central northern parts of the study area,where intensive agriculture and metallurgic and electronic enterprises dominate and the total Cu contents were high,and the least in the southern part,where the total Cu contents were low.The pattern simulated with SIS did not show any smoothing effect.With a given threshold of Cu content,SIS can quantitatively assess both local uncertainty and spatial uncertainty of Cu content that is greater the threshold.

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赵永存,黄标,孙维侠,邵学新,王志刚.张家港土壤表层铜含量空间预测的不确定性评价研究[J].土壤学报,2007,44(6):974-981. DOI:10.11766/trxb200608230603 Zhao Yongcun, Huang Biao, Sun Weixia, Shao Xuexin, Wang Zhigang. UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF THE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF COPPER CONTENTS IN TOPSOIL IN ZHANGJIAGANG CITY, CHINA[J]. Acta Pedologica Sinica,2007,44(6):974-981.

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  • 收稿日期:2006-08-23
  • 最后修改日期:2006-11-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-02-25
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