基于多源辅助变量和随机森林模型的表层土壤全氮分布预测
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S158.9

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国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0301603)和江西省赣鄱英才“555”领军人才项目(201295)资助


Prediction of Total Nitrogen Distribution in Surface Soil Based on Multi-source Auxiliary Variables and Random Forest Approach
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National Key R&D Program of China(No.2017YFD0301603), and the Gan Po“555”Talent Research Funds of Jiangxi Province(No.201295)

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    摘要:

    土壤全氮与土壤质量和肥力密切相关,准确掌握土壤全氮的空间分布特征对精准农业管理措施的实施具有重要意义。以寻乌县为研究区域,利用随机森林(RF)和随机森林残差克里格(RFRK)方法,结合地形因子、地理坐标、遥感因子、气候因子、距离因子和土壤理化因子等多源辅助变量,对寻乌县表层土壤全氮的空间分布进行预测和制图,并在迭代100次模型后对比了两种模型的预测精度。结果表明,在选择的4种模型精度指标中,RF模型的决定系数均值(R2=0.6291)和一致性相关系数均值(CCC=0.7613)均高于RFRK模型(R2=0.5719,CCC=0.6881),而RF模型的平均相对误差均值(MAE=0.1570 g·kg -1)和均方根误差均值(RMSE=0.2108 g·kg -1)均小于RFRK模型(MAE=0.1682 g·kg -1,RMSE=0.2267 g·kg -1)。将残差作为误差项加入RF模型并未提高其预测精度,因此,RF模型可以作为土壤属性预测的一种有效方法,为农业管理措施的实施提供技术支撑。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Soil total nitrogen is closely related to soil quality and fertility. It is of great significance to know the spatial distribution characteristics of soil total nitrogen for the implementation of precision agriculture management.[Method] The spatial distribution of total nitrogen in the surface soil of Xunwu County was predicted and mapped by using two methods:random forest and random forest plus residuals kriging. These methods were combined with multi-source auxiliary variables such as (i) terrain factors, (ii) geographical coordinate, (iii) remote sensing factors, (iv) climate factors, (v) distance factors, and (vi) soil physical or chemical factors. Also, the prediction accuracy of the two models was compared after 100 times of repeated operation.[Result] Our results show that the mean values of the decision coefficient (R2=0.6291) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC=0.7613) of the random forest model were higher than those of the random forest plus residual kriging method (R2=0.5719, CCC=0.6881). Also, the mean values of the mean absolute error (MAE=0.1570 g·kg-1) and root mean squared error (RMSE=0.2108 g·kg-1) were lower than those of the random forest plus residual kriging method (MAE=0.1682 g·kg-1, RMSE=0.2267 g·kg-1).[Conclusion] Importantly, adding residual to the random forest model did not improve its accuracy. These results suggest that the random forest model can be used as a new method for predicting soil properties, and it provides technical support for the implementation of agricultural management.

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周洋,赵小敏,郭熙.基于多源辅助变量和随机森林模型的表层土壤全氮分布预测[J].土壤学报,2022,59(2):451-460. DOI:10.11766/trxb202008240312 ZHOU Yang, ZHAO Xiaomin, GUO Xi. Prediction of Total Nitrogen Distribution in Surface Soil Based on Multi-source Auxiliary Variables and Random Forest Approach[J]. Acta Pedologica Sinica,2022,59(2):451-460.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-08-24
  • 最后修改日期:2021-04-03
  • 录用日期:2021-09-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-16
  • 出版日期: 2022-02-11