基于多时相合成遥感影像的耕地土壤肥力预测——以三江平原友谊农场为例
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S127

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中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目( XDA28050101,XDA28010102)和国家重点研发计划项目( 2021YFD1500102)资助


Prediction of Soil Fertility Properties in Cropland Using Multi-temporal Synthetic Remote Sensing Image: A Case Study of Youyi Farm in Sanjiang Plain
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Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. XDA28050101, XDA28010102), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2021YFD1500102)

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    摘要:

    东北地区是我国重要的粮食生产基地,近年来不合理的土地利用导致耕地土壤肥力下降,严重威胁我国粮食安全。本研究以三江平原友谊农场为研究区,采集了103个耕地表层土壤样品,利用2019—2023年4月、5月和6月潜在裸土期内的Sentinel-2遥感影像,采用随机森林模型实现土壤有机质、全氮、全磷和全钾的预测。为揭示影像时相对土壤肥力预测的影响,实现土壤肥力高精度预测,首先将影像划分为七个年份梯度(五个单一年份:2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年,两个多年份:2020—2022年以及2019—2023年),然后将同一年份梯度内的影像分为四个月份梯度(三个单一月份:4月、5月和6月,一个多月份:4—6月),共28种不同年份和月份梯度的多时相影像组合,最后将这28种多时相影像组合进行中值合成构建28景合成影像。结果表明,土壤有机质预测精度最高:R2= 0.62,RMSE= 6.58 g·kg-1,全氮的预测精度与有机质相似:R2 = 0.58,RMSE = 0.34 g·kg-1,全磷的预测精度难以满足实际应用需求,最高精度仅为:R2= 0.13,RMSE = 0.01 g·kg-1,全钾的预测精度为:R2 = 0.53,RMSE= 1.55 g·kg-1。不同时相的遥感影像预测结果表明,多年合成影像较单一年份合成影像具有更好的预测能力,且5月的合成影像预测精度最高。通过对遥感影像进行时相优选可实现土壤肥力属性中有机质、全氮和全钾的高精度预测,而全磷的预测则可能需要借助其他环境变量。本研究旨在为东北地区土壤肥力监测提供技术支持。

    Abstract:

    【Objective】 The Northeast of China is one of the most important grain production base for China. In recent years, unreasonable use of cultivated land in this region has caused a decline in soil fertility, posing a severe threat to the nation’s food security. To ensure sustainable agricultural practices, it is important to develop a rapid and reliable method for monitoring variations in soil physicochemical properties. 【Method】This study focused on the Youyi Farm in the Sanjiang Plain as the research area, aiming to evaluate the feasibility of Sentinel-2 multi-temporal remote sensing imagery in predicting key soil fertility properties. A total of 103 surface soil samples in cropland were collected, and Sentinel-2 images acquired during the potential bare-soil periods (April, May, and June) from 2019 to 2023 were selected to build a Random Forest regression model for predicting soil organic matter, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total potassium. To investigate the temporal effects of images on the prediction performance and to identify optimal temporal combinations for high-precision prediction of these soil fertility properties, the images were organized along two temporal axes. First, the images were divided into seven-year groups(five single-year groups: 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, and two multi-year groups: 2020—2022 and 2019—2023). Then, within each year-group, the images were further divided into four month-groups (three single-month-groups: April, May, and June, and one multi-month-group: April—June). Finally, the combination of the seven year-groups and four month-groups produced 28 distinct year-month temporal groupings. For each grouping, all available Sentinel-2 images were synthesized by median compositing to produce 28 synthetic images that served as inputs to the Random Forest model. 【Result】The results indicate that soil organic matter was predicted with the highest accuracy among the four fertility properties, with an R2 of 0.62 and an RMSE of 6.58 g·kg-1. The prediction accuracy of soil total nitrogen was similar to that of organic matter, with an R2 of 0.58 and an RMSE of 0.34 g·kg-1. Total phosphorus predictions were not sufficiently accurate for practical applications, with the highest accuracy of an R2 of 0.13 and RMSE of 0.01 g· kg-1. The total potassium achieved a relatively high prediction accuracy of an R2 of 0.53 and RMSE of 1.55 g·kg-1. 【Conclusion】The results in different year-groups and month-groups indicated that (1) multi-year synthetic images outperformed single-year synthetic images in prediction accuracy, and (2) the synthetic images from May showed the highest prediction accuracy among the monthly groupings. These findings demonstrate that careful temporal selection and multi-temporal synthesis of Sentinel-2 imagery can improve the prediction accuracy of soil organic matter, total nitrogen, and total potassium in the cultivated land of Northeast China. In contrast, Sentinel-2 spectral bands alone are difficult to effectively predict total phosphorus content. Integrating auxiliary environmental variables (such as topography, climate, or cultivation management) or employing alternative remote sensing data may be necessary to achieve higher accuracy. Overall, this study provides methodological guidance and technical support for regional-scale soil fertility monitoring and mapping in the Sanjiang Plain.

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马海艺,王昌昆,刘杰,郭志英,袁自然,姚成硕,王晓盼,潘贤章.基于多时相合成遥感影像的耕地土壤肥力预测——以三江平原友谊农场为例[J].土壤学报,2026,63(6):1843-1855. DOI:10.11766/trxb202507090338. MA Haiyi, WANG Changkun, LIU Jie, GUO Zhiying, YUAN Ziran, YAO Chengshuo, WANG Xiaopan, PAN Xianzhang. Prediction of Soil Fertility Properties in Cropland Using Multi-temporal Synthetic Remote Sensing Image: A Case Study of Youyi Farm in Sanjiang Plain[J]. Acta Pedologica Sinica,2026,63(6):1843-1855.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-19
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-09
  • 录用日期:2026-03-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-08
  • 出版日期: 2026-12-15
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