近20年贵州省农田土壤有机碳时空演变研究
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作者单位:

1.中国科学院南京土壤研究所;2.贵州省烟草科学研究院

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基金项目:

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA0440405)和中国烟草总公司重点研发项目(110202402016)资助


Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Soil Organic Carbon in Croplands of Guizhou Province over the Past 20 Years
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing;2.Guizhou Academy of Tobacco Science, Guiyang

Fund Project:

Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA0440405) and the Key Research and Development Project of China National Tobacco Corporation (No. 110202402016)

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    摘要:

    精准预测农田土壤有机碳密度(Soil organic carbon density,SOCD)时空连续分布是评估区域土壤固碳潜力的关键。尽管地统计学、机器学习和过程模型已广泛应用于SOCD时空演变研究,但受复杂地形、多源环境因子及多期样本数据限制,我国贵州省农田SOCD长期连续时空重建、变化阶段识别及不确定性量化仍面临挑战。本研究基于2006至2024年间贵州省四期共计2 295个样点数据及67个协变量,构建时空替代机器学习模型,重建了农田表层(0~20 cm)SOCD时空演变序列。结果表明:2006—2024年间贵州省农田表层SOCD总体由33.48增至36.89 t·hm-2,年均固碳速率为0.18 t·hm-2·a-1(95%置信区间:0.15~0.23 t·hm-2·a-1)。贵州省农田土壤固碳速率呈现阶段性特征,其中2006—2012年间土壤固碳速率较快,达到0.22 t·hm-2·a-1,2013—2024年土壤固碳速率有所放缓,达到0.14 t·hm-2·a-1;从面积和空间上看,过去近二十年,95%的农田发挥了碳汇功能,其中遵义市(0.21 t·hm-2·a-1)、黔西南(0.22 t·hm-2·a-1)农田土壤固碳速率较大。变量重要性分析表明土壤温度、土壤湿度及有机肥投入对贵州省农田SOCD时空演变影响较大,相对重要性分别达到14.76%、9.81%、9.08%。研究揭示了贵州省农田土壤SOCD时空演变规律,也为其他区域农田土壤有机碳研究提供方法借鉴。

    Abstract:

    【Objective】Accurate prediction of the spatiotemporal distribution of cropland soil organic carbon density (SOCD) is essential for assessing regional carbon sequestration potential. Although existing studies have extensively explored the spatiotemporal dynamics of SOCD using geostatistical methods, machine learning, and process-based models, further improvements are still needed in reconstructing continuous spatiotemporal changes in cropland SOCD, identifying stage-specific patterns, and quantifying uncertainties under complex terrain conditions. 【Method】In this study, Guizhou Province was selected as the study area. Based on 2 295 soil samples collected from four periods between 2006 and 2024, together with 67 covariates, a machine learning model was developed using a space-for-time substitution approach to reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of SOCD in the topsoil layer (0-20 cm). 【Result】SOCD in the cropland topsoil of Guizhou increased from 33.48 to 36.89 t·hm-2 during 2006-2024, with an average sequestration rate of 0.18 t·hm-2·a-1 (95% CI: 0.15-0.23 t·hm-2·a-1). The trend showed clear stage differences, with a faster increase during 2006-2012 (0.22 t·hm-2·a-1) and a slower rate during 2013-2024 (0.14 t·hm-2·a-1). Over the past two decades, about 95% of cropland acted as a carbon sink. Higher sequestration rates were mainly found in Zunyi (0.21 t·hm-2·a-1) and Qianxinan (0.22 t·hm-2·a-1). Among all variables, soil temperature, soil moisture, and organic fertilizer input played the most important roles, with relative contributions of 14.76%, 9.81%, and 9.08%, respectively. 【Conclusion】These results provide a clear picture of how SOCD has changed over time in Guizhou’s farmland and offer a practical approach that can be applied to similar studies in other regions.

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何嘉莉,高维常,陈 剑,严国菁,张 煜,邹庭润,谢恩泽,赵永存.近20年贵州省农田土壤有机碳时空演变研究[J].土壤学报,DOI:10.11766/trxb202604290222,[待发表]
HE Jiali, GAO Weichang, CHEN Jian, YAN Guojing, ZHAGN Yu, ZOU Tingrun, XIE Enze, ZHAO Yongcun. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Soil Organic Carbon in Croplands of Guizhou Province over the Past 20 Years[J]. Acta Pedologica Sinica, DOI:10.11766/trxb202604290222,[In Press]

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-29
  • 最后修改日期:2026-10-12
  • 录用日期:2026-10-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-23
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