引用本文:周慧平,周宏伟,陈玉东.指纹技术识别泥沙来源:不确定性研究进展[J].土壤学报,2019,56(6):1279-1289.
ZHOU Huiping,ZHOU Hongwei,CHEN yudong.Sediment Source Fingerprinting: Progress in Uncertainty Analysis[J].Acta Pedologica Sinica,2019,56(6):1279-1289
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指纹技术识别泥沙来源:不确定性研究进展
周慧平1, 周宏伟2, 陈玉东3
1.常州大学环境与安全工程学院;2.太湖流域管理局水利发展研究中心;3.环境保护部南京环境科学研究所
摘要:
泥沙指纹技术是近年来研究流域泥沙来源与动态变化的一项重要技术方法,其主要局限性在于诸多的前提假设与实践条件的差异带入了一系列不确定性。泥沙从源到汇的迁移过程受自然环境和人为干扰的影响,其源地特征、迁移路径以及泥沙性质的潜在变化等均是指纹技术应用的不确定性因素,而采样方案设计、指纹选择方法、混合模型应用的一些主观因素进一步增加了不确定性的来源。不确定性分析是泥沙指纹技术的重要组成部分,是评估泥沙来源指纹识别结果可靠性的主要依据。本文综述了泥沙指纹技术的诸多不确定性问题以及主要应对方法的研究进展,总结了当前不确定性定量评估的研究现状并提出了未来的研究展望。
关键词:  泥沙  源解析  指纹识别  不确定性分析
DOI:10.11766/trxb201812100570
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFD0801106),国家自然科学基金项目(41101496)
Sediment Source Fingerprinting: Progress in Uncertainty Analysis
ZHOU Huiping1, ZHOU Hongwei2, CHEN yudong3
1.School of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Changzhou University;2.The Water Resources Development Research Center of Taihu Basin Authority;3.Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,MEP
Abstract:
Sediment fingerprinting is a technique critical to researches on sources and dynamics of sediment in recent years. However, the technique does have certain limitations, for instance, its multiple assumptions often differ from practical conditions, thus bringing about a series of uncertainties. The process of sediment transportation from source to sink is subject to the interference of natural environment and anthropic activities, so potential variations of source characteristics, migration path, and properties of sediment are all factors of uncertainty in fingerprinting procedure. Moreover, sampling designing, fingerprint selection method, and use of mixing models are subjective factors that further expand sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis is a significant component of the sediment fingerprinting technique, and it is also an important basis for assessing reliability of fingerprinting to identify sources of sediment. This paper reviewed the series of issues of uncertainty in sediment fingerprinting, and progresses in researches addressing these problems and described status quo of the research on quantitative assessment of the uncertainties in an attempt to provide certain recommendations for further investigation.
Key words:  Sediment  Source apportionment  Fingerprinting  Uncertainty analysis