The development of phosphate (P) fertilizer industry is closely related to China's food security, P resource utilization, and environmental protection. Nowadays, soil available P rapidly increased due to the large amount chemical P fertilizer application in the past 40 years, especially in the surface soil. It is of great significance to predict and regulate the future demand for P fertilizer in China based on the action of green development of agriculture. The integrated analyses show that in this paper, a large proportion of soil for cereal crops production in China has reached the crop agronomic P threshold (15～25 mg·kg^-1), which means above this threshold there is no yield increase response with P application. In particular, the soil available P had considerably exceeded the threshold value for cash crops such as vegetables and fruit trees. Soil available P should be maintained at the agronomic threshold based on the requirement of crop root/rhizosphere biological capacity, nutritional quality and environmental risks. Consequently, it is critical to implement “crop agronomic threshold” oriented P fertilizer management system. Meanwhile, the agricultural green development needs to maximize the recycling and reuse efficiency of P in agricultural waste, which should focus on the recycling process and agronomic utilization. Accordingly, considering the demand for food and other agricultural products in China, this paper re-predicted the future demand for P fertilizer, following the prediction of China's P fertilizer demand in 2007 based on changes in soil P fertility. The consumption of chemical P fertilizer in China will be 10.84 million tons and 7.42 million tons by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Therefore, based on the continued and multiple optimized measures, the overall demand for P fertilizer in China in the short term by 2030 could reduce about 1.5 million tons, in the long term by 2050 could be adjusted to 7.5 million tons per year, more than 30% reduction from the current consumption.