The probability of heavy metal potential risk is gradually increased with the development of industry, agriculture and urbanization. Early warning of heavy metal potential risk becomes one of the hot topics of the land environmental risk management. The methods and strategies for risk countermeasures of heavy metal pollution was developed in Beijing study area, and the prediction of variation trend and environmental quality risk was calculated for the next 30 years. In Beijing study area, input-output flux model and heavy metals accumulation rate model were established at town-wise units by taking into account the datasets acquired from the literatures, statistical yearbooks and field survey. Fluxes and accumulation of Cr, Ni, Zn, Hg, Cu, As, Cd and Pb were calculated following the material balance principle in 2006. 2006 results as a reference base, the trend and environmental quality risk of each heavy metal was estimated based on criteria of the early warning system for the next 30 years. The spatial pattern of the trend and early warning for each heavy metal was interpolated by the probability model of Kriging. Results show in the next 30 years, (1) the risk of Pb, Cr, and Ni were relative lower, and their concentrations will linger below Grade II criteria of the national standard for soil environmental quality, and the other metals will be over Grade II criteria of the national standard with different degrees of environmental risk. (2)Compared with Ni and Cr, the high risk values of Pb are mainly distributed in the urban area, where primary atmospheric deposition. Cr and Ni content are higher in the northeast of Beijing, where the corresponding control measures should be taken. (3) Cu, As and Zn will maybe reach medium level, while Hg and Cd may be up to alarm level three and level four. As and Zn have low potential risk with the similar tendency of heavy metal potential risk early warning, indicating their homology sources from soil parent materials. The risk of Hg and Cd will vary spatially in warning levels and probability. Among the 8 heavy metals, Cd will be highest in environmental risk with the large areas, and some of the risk will mainly spread in the far-reaching suburban related to agricultural activities. The high Hg risk areas will expand with the urban sprawl largely by human influence. Firstly, eight heavy metals show different environmental risk levels, relevant departments should make difference control measures for different regions according to specific environment risk levels and types of soil heavy metal pollution. Secondly, the geostatistics technology coupled with the regional flux model could provide an excellent technical tool for macro-scaled early-warning of regional soil heavy metals pollution.