反映样点微域空间变异的多穴位黑土层厚度快速勘察与预测方法研究
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1.中国科学院南京土壤研究所;2.黑龙江省黑土保护利用研究院

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1500202)和中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA28010100)资助


Study on Rapid Survey and Prediction Methods of Multi-Point Black Soil Layer Thickness Reflecting Micro-Spatial Variability of Sample Points
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing;2.Heilongjiang Academy of Black Soil Conservation and Utilization

Fund Project:

Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFD1500202) and the Strategic Pioneering Science and Technology Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA28010100)

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    摘要:

    黑土层厚度作为土壤质量的重要标志,在土壤可持续发展、粮食安全和生态功能中发挥着不可替代作用。然而,基于土壤剖面调查数据分析,往往样本数量少、区域范围小,多数仅依据点位数据统计,缺乏空间变异预测分析,迫切需要黑土层厚度快速调查与高性能空间预测方法。通过新建调查样点黑土层厚度多穴位“浅层挖掘+深层土钻”快速获取方法,在黑龙江省获取357个样点的黑土层厚度系列样本数据;通过对随机森林预测模型参数优化,预测黑土层厚度空间变异及其不确定性;分析不同穴位观测值及其均值样本对优化模型预测精度及稳定性影响,评价模型空间预测潜能。研究区耕地预测平均黑土层厚度为53.42 cm,新建黑土层厚度快速获取与预测方法行之有效,可替代剖面调查方法。优化随机森林模型预测黑土层厚度的空间变化解释力R2达到60%,可精细刻画黑土层厚度空间分异;样点单个观测穴位的随机性可改变模型预测协变量重要性数值,甚至影响黑土层厚度空间预测分布格局;相较于样点多穴位观测均值的空间预测,单穴位观测值预测的空间分布不确定性评估准确性较低,预测精度显著下降;交叉验证指标和散点图分析表明,优化随机森林模型对黑土层厚度具有稳定的空间预测潜能。本研究为黑土层厚度高精度快速调查与预测提供了新经验、新途径。

    Abstract:

    【Objective】As an important indicator of soil quality, black soil layer thickness plays an irreplaceable role in sustainable soil development, food security and ecological functions. However, analyses based on soil profile survey data are often based on small sample sizes and small regional scales, and most of them are based on point data statistics only. However, the studies lacked spatial variability prediction analyses, hence, there is an urgent need for rapid surveys of the thickness of the black soil layer and high-performance spatial prediction methods.【Method】In this paper, a series of sample data of black soil thickness at 357 sample points in Heilongjiang Province were obtained by the rapid acquisition method of "shallow excavation + deep soil drilling" for black soil thickness at multiple burrows in newly constructed sample points. The spatial variability of black soil thickness and its uncertainty were predicted through the optimisation of parameters of the Random Forest Prediction Model (RPFPM). The impacts of the different burrow observations and their mean samples on the optimization of the model's prediction accuracy and stability were analyzed, and the spatial prediction potentials of the model were evaluated.【Result】The predicted average thickness of the black soil layer in the arable land in the study area was 53.42 cm, and the new method of rapid acquisition and prediction of black soil layer thickness was effective and can be used as an alternative to the profiling method. The spatial variation explanatory power R2 of the optimized random forest model for predicting black soil thickness reached 60%, which could finely depict the spatial differentiation of black soil thickness. Also, the randomness of a single observation burrow at a sample point could change the importance value of the covariates predicted by the model, and even affect the spatial prediction of the distribution pattern of the black soil thickness. Compared with the spatial prediction on the mean value of several observations, the spatial prediction on a single observation had lower accuracy for uncertainty assessment of the spatial distribution and significantly reduced prediction performance. Interestingly, the cross-validation metrics and scatterplot analyses indicated that the optimized Random Forest model had a stable spatial prediction potential of the black soil thickness.【Conclusion】This study provides a new perspective and new ways for high-precision and rapid investigation and prediction of black soil layer thickness.

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高张,马利霞,于东升,胡文友,李德成,高磊,刘峰,张久明,姜军,匡恩俊,王鑫,宋洁,王桐,王昌昆,迟凤琴,赵玉国.反映样点微域空间变异的多穴位黑土层厚度快速勘察与预测方法研究[J].土壤学报,,[待发表]
gao zhang, ma lixia, yu dongsheng, hu wenyou, li decheng, gao lei, liu feng, zhang jiuming, jiang jun, kuang enjun, wang xin, song jie, wang tong, wang changkun, chi fengqin, zhao yuguo. Study on Rapid Survey and Prediction Methods of Multi-Point Black Soil Layer Thickness Reflecting Micro-Spatial Variability of Sample Points[J]. Acta Pedologica Sinica,,[In Press]

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-21
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-26
  • 录用日期:2024-03-06
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